Labour's grip on power is tenuous, and while Sir Keir Starmer has managed to consolidate his position following the Scottish Labour leader's call for his resignation, there are still potential pitfalls ahead. The upcoming by-election in Gorton and Denton, a southeast corner of Greater Manchester, could be a significant test for the Prime Minister. Labour won over half the vote in this area just 18 months ago, but since then, MP Andrew Gwynne has resigned from Parliament after offensive text messages he sent were published. The region's mayor, Andy Burnham, saw this by-election as an opportunity to return to Westminster and potentially even the Labour leadership, but he was blocked by Starmer and Labour's ruling committee. Instead, local councillor Angeliki Stogia has been selected as the Labour candidate. She moved to Manchester from Greece 30 years ago and wants to win to stop what she calls the 'division' offered by Reform UK. The relentless pace and scrutiny of a by-election campaign, with hustings, media appearances, and hours of door-knocking, are unlike any other political campaign. Despite Stogia's belief in Starmer's leadership, his unpopularity could be a drag, with his personal poll ratings being the joint lowest of any PM other than Liz Truss. Reform UK, on the other hand, has taken over an industrial unit in the corner of a business park as its campaign headquarters, with an enormous union flag, piles of leaflets, and images of Nigel Farage alongside the party's candidate, Matt Goodwin. Goodwin, a former professor who studied right-wing politicians, has now been tempted to try and become one himself. He argues that Labour has taken voters for granted and has strong opinions on immigration and integration. The Gorton and Denton constituency, which includes Levenshulme and Burnage, once the home of Oasis's Gallagher brothers, is a tale of two Manchesters on opposite edges of Labour's unravelling electoral coalition. One side is home to many university students and graduates, with a 40% Muslim population, while the other part is 83% white, with many in low-paying jobs. The seat is also characterized by relative child poverty twice the national UK average and issues with littering and fly-tipping. The Green Party, with its candidate Hannah Spencer, is optimistic about its chances of taking the seat, and Palestinian flags are emblazoned on many of their leaflets. Former police officer Charlotte Cadden is the Conservative candidate, and she believes she can win, despite her party coming second here in the 2019 election and being pushed into fifth place in 2024.
