Be warned, Flyers fans: trading Owen Tippett could be a risky move with potentially far-reaching consequences.
In 2022, the Philadelphia Flyers made a bold decision, trading their long-time captain, Claude Giroux, at the NHL trade deadline. In return, they acquired a first-round pick (used to draft Jack Nesbitt) and a third-round pick (Denver Barkey). But the real prize was Owen Tippett, who stepped into some massive shoes as a Flyer, especially considering the front office turmoil that followed.
Tippett was seen as a vital piece, with former GM Chuck Fletcher's legacy on the line. This trade was a significant move and a potential turning point for the franchise. It signaled a retooling effort, but also an admission of failure for a team trying to stay competitive. For a while, Tippett carried the weight of being 'traded for Giroux,' but he's since carved his own path, becoming an essential player both on and off the ice as the Flyers refocus on making the playoffs.
However, Tippett's name has recently surfaced in trade rumors again. Drafted just eight picks after Nolan Patrick in 2017, Tippett has secured two contract extensions with the Flyers, the latest keeping him with the team until 2032. Typically, players with such long-term deals aren't moved, but there's been buzz around other teams inquiring about Tippett. It's not about any dissatisfaction with Tippett; rather, the Flyers have an abundance of wingers and a dire need for an impact center. Tippett's skill set is intriguing, but the Flyers have made it clear they're not shopping their talented player.
Despite this, Matt Larkin's NHL Trade Board lists Tippett as a 'Tier three' trade candidate, citing uncertainty over his long-term fit with the Flyers due to their surplus of wingers. No other Flyer forward is on the list.
Tippett's impact on the ice is undeniable, but he can be a frustrating player. His physical attributes are off the charts: he's in the 99th percentile for speed in 20-22 mph bursts and clears Nathan MacKinnon's top speed, which is mind-boggling. Last season, his hardest shot was in the 92nd percentile among all NHL players, and the season before, he was in the 99th percentile. He's an exciting player to watch and possesses natural gifts that every hockey player dreams of. However, while MacKinnon is on pace for over 64 goals, Tippett is coming off a 20-goal season.
We're not expecting Tippett to be the next Nathan MacKinnon, but we do need more consistency. Since a 10-game goal drought in November, which he broke with a goal and three assists in a shootout win in St. Louis, Tippett has minimized the inconsistency that plagued his career. Most goal scorers have hot streaks, but Tippett has shown he can contribute in other ways on nights when his scoring touch deserts him.
This season, according to MoneyPuck, Tippett leads the Flyers in expected goals with 16.3, just behind Leon Draisaitl. He's already surpassed his expected goals mark from last season, his lowest goal-scoring season since becoming a full-time Flyer in 2022-23, and he's done it in 400 fewer minutes. He's also being deployed more in defensive zone draws and has improved his defensive play, becoming a 60th percentile defensive player according to Evolving-Hockey.
Tippett has drawn more penalties, taken more shots on goal per game, and is shooting at a career-best 12 percent, two percent higher than last year. He's a more dangerous player than he was a year ago. While he's on pace for 25 goals this season through 49 games, it feels less disappointing than his previous 20-goal campaign. If he gets hot again, he could easily threaten 30 goals and provide excellent value for his $6.2 million contract.
But can the Flyers effectively replace Tippett if they were to trade him? They have a strong group of effective, NHL-caliber wingers, and it makes sense to deal from a position of strength, especially when considering their need for high-end talent elsewhere. The acquisition of Trevor Zegras hasn't solved the issue, so the trade board remains a focus as they search for a quality scoring center.
Tippett's palatable salary makes him an attractive trade piece, especially with other talented wingers like Travis Konecny, Tyson Foerster, Matvei Michkov, and soon-to-be Porter Martone vying for top-six minutes. While the numbers suggest Tippett might be the best of the bunch for now, and the only one capable of dominating a game from end to end, his dynamic skill set is hard to replace, especially in one player. No other player on the Philadelphia roster can create a goal like Tippett.
None of the other wingers on the roster, aside from Konecny, have the track record of Tippett. Foerster's season has been derailed by injury, and it's uncertain if he'll regain his form. Zegras might be shooting above his expected goal totals, so his numbers this season might not reflect his true talent level. Michkov and Martone are young and won't reach their peaks until closer to 2030, but they're expected to be excellent players before then if the Flyers' rebuild is to succeed.
Ultimately, to get good players, you have to trade good players, and that includes players we like. Tippett is playing the best hockey of his career and should have good trade value around the league. The Flyers aren't trading Michkov or Konecny, and it's unlikely Martone will be moved. Someone will have to go eventually, and all we can do is hope the Flyers make the right choice.
